Cobresal 1-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nublense make the trip to Estadio El Cobre to face Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Cobresal (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cobresal's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Estadio El Cobre this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Cobre. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nublense's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Cobresal against 1.60 for Nublense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cobresal 1W, Nublense 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 2–3 with Nublense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cobresal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Nublense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 56% versus Nublense 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 50% | Nublense 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.28 xG and Nublense 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.027 / defence 0.798 | Nublense attack 0.862 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.226. Cobresal's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Cobresal games / 33 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 47% | Draw 29% | Nublense 24%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Nublense 4.17. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 30% | Nublense 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 47% | Draw 29% | Nublense 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Cobresal 1.28 / Nublense 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.027 / def 0.798 | Nublense attack 0.862 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Nublense xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Nublense kick off?
Cobresal vs Nublense kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Nublense?
Cobresal 1 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Cobresal vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Nublense part of?
Cobresal vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 47% chance of winning, Nublense a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cobresal and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Nublense?
Record (3 meetings): Cobresal 1W | Draws 1 | Nublense 1W.
What form are Cobresal and Nublense in?
Cobresal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Nublense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.03) and Nublense's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (0.86x) against Cobresal's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.47
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.12
0.84
Nublense xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.84 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cobresal come into this having played 62 games, going 24W 13D 25L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Nublense sit at 1.55 PPG from 62 outings (25W 21D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Cobresal against 1.55 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cobresal's home form reads 16W 7D 8L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Nublense have taken 1.26 points per game from 31 outings (9W 12D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.53 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Nublense in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 24W 13D 25L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Nublense have gone 25W 21D 16L in their last 62 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Nublense away?
Cobresal's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.77 PPG; Nublense away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Nublense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nublense won 5-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cobresal
4
Draws
4
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Nublense have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Cobresal 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 55%, Nublense 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cobresal) and 45% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Nublense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Nublense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Cobresal's games and 58% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cobresal's recent games and 45% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Nublense tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Nublense in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal and Nublense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal and Nublense finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.28 xG and Nublense 0.84 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.03 / defence 0.80 against Nublense attack 0.86 / defence 0.81, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 47% | Draw 29% | Nublense 24%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 50%, Nublense 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Nublense's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.37 PPG, Nublense 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.