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Shock result as Nublense defy the odds to beat Cobresal 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nublense beat Cobresal 0-1 at El Cobre, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.72 xG and Nublense 1.37 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cobresal fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.98 / defence 1.19 against Nublense attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 46% | Draw 24% | Nublense 31%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Nublense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 63%, Nublense 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.33 PPG, Nublense 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Nublense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights