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Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Huachipato 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat Huachipato 1-0 at El Cobre, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.72 xG and Huachipato 1.14 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Huachipato landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Huachipato attack 1.10 / defence 1.09, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 51% | Draw 24% | Huachipato 25%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 63%, Huachipato 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.33 PPG, Huachipato 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights