Cobresal 0-0 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cobresal at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Cobre plays host to Cobresal versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cobresal have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cobresal at Estadio El Cobre this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton de Vina's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cobresal, 0 for Everton de Vina and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 59% versus Everton de Vina 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 53% | Everton de Vina 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.30 xG and Everton de Vina 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.053 / defence 1.135 | Everton de Vina attack 1.076 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.013. Data: 43 Cobresal games / 43 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 38% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 35%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Everton de Vina 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 70% | Everton de Vina 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 38% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Cobresal 1.30 / Everton de Vina 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.053 / def 1.135 | Everton de Vina attack 1.076 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Everton de Vina xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 9 May 2022 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Cobresal 0 - 0 Everton de Vina.
Where is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina part of?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 38% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cobresal and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
Record (1 meetings): Cobresal 0W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in?
Cobresal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cobresal's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.08x) against Cobresal's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.70
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.54
1.24
Everton de Vina xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.24 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cobresal come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 7D 14L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (10W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Cobresal against 1.22 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cobresal's home form reads 7W 4D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.91 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Everton de Vina away?
Cobresal's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.56 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Everton de Vina go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cobresal
6
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 62%, Everton de Vina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cobresal) and 25% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Cobresal's recent matches and 44% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cobresal's recent games and 25% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cobresal's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal and Everton de Vina finished level at 0-0 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.30 xG and Everton de Vina 1.24 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cobresal fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Everton de Vina landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.05 / defence 1.14 against Everton de Vina attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 38% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 35%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 53%, Everton de Vina 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.25 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.