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Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Deportes Iquique 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat Deportes Iquique 2-1 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.70 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.97 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Deportes Iquique attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 54% | Draw 24% | Deportes Iquique 22%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 70%, Deportes Iquique 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Deportes Iquique arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Cobresal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights