Cobresal 2-3 Curico Unido – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cobresal at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Curico Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 2 as Cobresal welcome Curico Unido to Estadio El Cobre. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 February 2022 at 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobresal stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cobresal at Estadio El Cobre this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Curico Unido — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Curico Unido have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Curico Unido are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cobresal register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Curico Unido in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cobresal, 1 for Curico Unido and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Curico Unido winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Curico Unido in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 59% versus Curico Unido 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 53% | Curico Unido 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.32 xG and Curico Unido 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.025 / defence 1.030 | Curico Unido attack 1.076 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.147. Data: 33 Cobresal games / 33 Curico Unido games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cobresal 37% | Draw 29% | Curico Unido 34%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Curico Unido 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Curico Unido (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 70% | Curico Unido 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Curico Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Monday 14 Feb 2022, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 37% | Draw 29% | Curico Unido 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Cobresal 1.32 / Curico Unido 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.025 / def 1.030 | Curico Unido attack 1.076 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Curico Unido xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Curico Unido kick off?
Cobresal vs Curico Unido kicked off at 23:30 on Monday 14 February 2022 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Curico Unido?
Cobresal 2 - 3 Curico Unido.
Where is Cobresal vs Curico Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Curico Unido part of?
Cobresal vs Curico Unido is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Curico Unido?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 37% chance of winning, Curico Unido a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Curico Unido?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cobresal and Curico Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Curico Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Curico Unido?
Record (2 meetings): Cobresal 1W | Draws 0 | Curico Unido 1W.
What form are Cobresal and Curico Unido in?
Cobresal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.02x the league average against Curico Unido's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Curico Unido's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
37%
2.74
29%
3.44
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.59
1.27
Curico Unido xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
9%
10.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Curico Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Curico Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.27 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Curico Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cobresal come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 7D 14L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Curico Unido sit at 1.16 PPG from 32 outings (8W 13D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cobresal on 1.25 PPG, Curico Unido on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cobresal's home form reads 7W 4D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Curico Unido have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cobresal are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Curico Unido are on 1.16 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Curico Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Curico Unido in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Curico Unido have gone 8W 13D 11L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Curico Unido away?
Cobresal's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.56 PPG; Curico Unido away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Curico Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Curico Unido in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cobresal and Curico Unido runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cobresal have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Cobresal's record when hosting Curico Unido specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cobresal
0
Draws
3
Curico Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Curico Unido?
From 6 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, Curico Unido have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Curico Unido last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2023, when Curico Unido 1-2 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 62%, Curico Unido 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cobresal) and 38% (Curico Unido).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Curico Unido in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Curico Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Curico Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cobresal's games and 50% of Curico Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Curico Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cobresal's recent games and 38% of Curico Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Curico Unido tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Curico Unido in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Curico Unido defy the odds to beat Cobresal 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Curico Unido beat Cobresal 2-3 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.32 xG and Curico Unido 1.27 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Curico Unido outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Curico Unido attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 37% | Draw 29% | Curico Unido 34%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Curico Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 53%, Curico Unido 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Curico Unido's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.25 PPG, Curico Unido 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Curico Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Curico Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.