Cobresal 2-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cobresal at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobresal stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio El Cobre — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.87 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.146 / defence 1.094 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.737 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.148. Data: 38 Cobresal games / 6 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 59% | Draw 23% | Coquimbo Unido 18%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Coquimbo Unido 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Cobresal (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 59% | Draw 23% | Coquimbo Unido 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Cobresal 1.87 / Coquimbo Unido 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.146 / def 1.094 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.737 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Coquimbo Unido xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Cobresal 2 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 59% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido in?
Cobresal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Cobresal home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.15) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.37
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.79
0.93
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
3%
36.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.93 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Pre-Season
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Cobresal's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cobresal
1
Draws
6
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 3-2 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Coquimbo Unido 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Coquimbo Unido 2-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.87 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.93 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.15 / defence 1.09 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.74 / defence 1.13, drawn from 38/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 59% | Draw 23% | Coquimbo Unido 18%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.