🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Coquimbo Unido (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cobresal face Coquimbo Unido.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Cobresal host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador in Primera División, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobresal stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 5W 0D 5L at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador than their overall form suggests.

Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Coquimbo Unido — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Coquimbo Unido have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Cobresal.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Coquimbo Unido winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Coquimbo Unido have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Cobresal trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Coquimbo Unido trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 58% versus Coquimbo Unido 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 58% | Coquimbo Unido 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.34 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 0.884 / defence 1.108 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.170 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.198. Data: 45 Cobresal games / 45 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cobresal 33% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 42%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Coquimbo Unido 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 40% | Coquimbo Unido 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights