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Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Cobresal 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Cobresal 1-2 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 0.98 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.32 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.27 / defence 0.69, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 28% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 45%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 62%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights