Cobresal 1-2 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Cobresal take on Colo Colo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cobresal and Colo Colo meet at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 April 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 0.94 xG and Colo Colo 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Colo Colo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.840 / away 1.002. Data: 1 Cobresal games / 1 Colo Colo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cobresal 29% | Draw 40% | Colo Colo 31%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 3.45 | Draw 2.50 | Colo Colo 3.23. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 29% | Draw 40% | Colo Colo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 42% | xG Cobresal 0.94 / Colo Colo 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Colo Colo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.840 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Colo Colo xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Colo Colo kick off?
Cobresal vs Colo Colo kicked off at 00:30 on Sunday 4 April 2021 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Colo Colo?
Cobresal 1 - 2 Colo Colo.
Where is Cobresal vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Colo Colo part of?
Cobresal vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 29% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 31% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cobresal and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Colo Colo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and Colo Colo in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cobresal's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Colo Colo's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (0.85x) against Cobresal's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.43
40%
2.52
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Cobresal xG
Total xG
1.92
0.98
Colo Colo xG
3.43
29%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 14.3 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.98 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Pre-Season
Colo Colo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 6-0 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cobresal
1
Draws
6
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, Colo Colo have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Colo Colo 3-0 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Cobresal 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Cobresal 1-2 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 0.94 xG and Colo Colo 0.98 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Colo Colo outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Colo Colo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 29% | Draw 40% | Colo Colo 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Colo Colo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.