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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cobresal run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Colo Colo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat Colo Colo 3-0 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 29, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.13 xG and Colo Colo 1.05 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Colo Colo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Colo Colo attack 0.90 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 37% | Draw 29% | Colo Colo 34%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 62%, Colo Colo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Colo Colo's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Cobresal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights