Cobresal 2-0 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antofagasta make the trip to Estadio El Cobre to face Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Cobresal (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio El Cobre — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antofagasta have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antofagasta's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Cobresal, 1.60 for Antofagasta — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cobresal have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Antofagasta in 78%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cobresal lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2021, ended 1–2 with Antofagasta winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cobresal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Antofagasta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cobresal 58% and Antofagasta 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 47% | Antofagasta 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.43 xG and Antofagasta 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.171 / defence 0.928 | Antofagasta attack 0.737 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.200. Data: 20 Cobresal games / 19 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 50% | Draw 31% | Antofagasta 20%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Antofagasta 5.00. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cobresal 60% | Antofagasta 78% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 50% | Draw 31% | Antofagasta 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Cobresal 1.43 / Antofagasta 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.171 / def 0.928 | Antofagasta attack 0.737 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Antofagasta xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Antofagasta kick off?
Cobresal vs Antofagasta kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Antofagasta?
Cobresal 2 - 0 Antofagasta.
Where is Cobresal vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Antofagasta part of?
Cobresal vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 50% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cobresal and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Antofagasta?
Record (1 meetings): Cobresal 0W | Draws 0 | Antofagasta 1W.
What form are Cobresal and Antofagasta in?
Cobresal (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Antofagasta (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.17x the league average against Antofagasta's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (0.74x) against Cobresal's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
50%
2.02
31%
3.24
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.25
0.82
Antofagasta xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
5%
21.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.82 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 8W 4D 7L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antofagasta's form line: 7W 7D 5L from 19 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Cobresal against 1.47 for Antofagasta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Antofagasta have gone 1W 6D 2L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antofagasta's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cobresal are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.26 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta in 74%.
Last 19 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Antofagasta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 7W 7D 5L in their last 19 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Antofagasta away?
Cobresal's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.22 PPG; Antofagasta away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Cobresal have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cobresal
0
Draws
1
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, Antofagasta have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2022, when Cobresal 2-1 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Antofagasta?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Cobresal, 78% for Antofagasta — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cobresal and 22% for Antofagasta.
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Antofagasta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cobresal's games and 78% of Antofagasta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cobresal's recent games and 22% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Antofagasta tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antofagasta.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Antofagasta 2-0 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.43 xG and Antofagasta 0.82 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antofagasta landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.17 / defence 0.93 against Antofagasta attack 0.74 / defence 1.09, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 50% | Draw 31% | Antofagasta 20%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 47%, Antofagasta 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antofagasta's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.47 PPG, Antofagasta 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Antofagasta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.