Cobresal 1-2 A. Italiano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs A. Italiano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Cobre plays host to Cobresal versus A. Italiano in Primera División, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Monday 4 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cobresal's overall Primera División record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Estadio El Cobre this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
A. Italiano have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for A. Italiano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, A. Italiano have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Cobresal, 1.70 for A. Italiano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Cobresal — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
A. Italiano — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 50% versus A. Italiano 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cobresal 41% | A. Italiano 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.35 xG and A. Italiano 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.195 / defence 0.879 | A. Italiano attack 0.850 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.201. Data: 22 Cobresal games / 22 A. Italiano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 46% | Draw 31% | A. Italiano 23%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | A. Italiano 4.35. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cobresal 50% | A. Italiano 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs A. Italiano | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Monday 4 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 46% | Draw 31% | A. Italiano 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Cobresal 1.35 / A. Italiano 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.195 / def 0.879 | A. Italiano attack 0.850 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.90
A. Italiano xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs A. Italiano kick off?
Cobresal vs A. Italiano kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 4 October 2021 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs A. Italiano?
Cobresal 1 - 2 A. Italiano.
Where is Cobresal vs A. Italiano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs A. Italiano part of?
Cobresal vs A. Italiano is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs A. Italiano?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 46% chance of winning, A. Italiano a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs A. Italiano?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cobresal and A. Italiano will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs A. Italiano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and A. Italiano?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and A. Italiano in?
Cobresal (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. A. Italiano (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cobresal's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against A. Italiano's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — A. Italiano's attack (0.85x) against Cobresal's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
46%
2.19
31%
3.23
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.25
0.90
A. Italiano xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs A. Italiano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cobresal and A. Italiano expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.90 for A. Italiano, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs A. Italiano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cobresal's recent record stands at 9W 5D 8L from 22 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
A. Italiano, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 4L across 22 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for A. Italiano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Cobresal against 1.73 for A. Italiano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cobresal have managed 7W 2D 2L from 11 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
A. Italiano's away record stands at 3W 6D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; A. Italiano are on 1.23 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; A. Italiano in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
A. Italiano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and A. Italiano in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 games (1.45 PPG), while A. Italiano have gone 10W 8D 4L in their last 22 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or A. Italiano away?
Cobresal's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.09 PPG; A. Italiano away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Cobresal or A. Italiano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, A. Italiano in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against A. Italiano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cobresal
1
Draws
7
A. Italiano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and A. Italiano?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, A. Italiano have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and A. Italiano last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when A. Italiano 2-1 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and A. Italiano?
A. Italiano have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
A. Italiano see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 54%, A. Italiano 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Cobresal and 18% for A. Italiano.
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; A. Italiano in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / A. Italiano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play A. Italiano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cobresal's recent matches and 54% of A. Italiano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs A. Italiano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cobresal's recent games and 18% of A. Italiano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and A. Italiano tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, A. Italiano in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as A. Italiano defy the odds to beat Cobresal 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
A. Italiano beat Cobresal 1-2 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.35 xG and A. Italiano 0.90 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. A. Italiano outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.20 / defence 0.88 against A. Italiano attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 46% | Draw 31% | A. Italiano 23%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a A. Italiano win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 41%, A. Italiano 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
A. Italiano's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.45 PPG, A. Italiano 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the A. Italiano win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. A. Italiano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.