Antofagasta 1-1 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 48%, yet in-form Universidad de Chile provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán plays host to Antofagasta versus Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 10 July 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antofagasta have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Antofagasta have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Antofagasta are significantly better at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán than their overall form suggests.
Universidad de Chile's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Universidad de Chile have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Universidad de Chile are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antofagasta lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Universidad de Chile winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Antofagasta half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Universidad de Chile half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antofagasta 50% versus Universidad de Chile 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antofagasta 40% | Universidad de Chile 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.40 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.833 / defence 0.959 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.932 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 0.978. Data: 48 Antofagasta games / 48 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 48% | Draw 30% | Universidad de Chile 22%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Universidad de Chile 4.55. Antofagasta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antofagasta as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Universidad de Chile (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antofagasta if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antofagasta 30% | Universidad de Chile 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 48% | Draw 30% | Universidad de Chile 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Antofagasta 1.40 / Universidad de Chile 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.833 / def 0.959 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.932 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.442 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Universidad de Chile xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile?
Antofagasta 1 - 1 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 48% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile?
Record (3 meetings): Antofagasta 0W | Draws 1 | Universidad de Chile 2W.
What form are Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antofagasta's attack rating (0.83) and Universidad de Chile's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Universidad de Chile's attack (0.93x) against Antofagasta's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.34
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.27
0.87
Universidad de Chile xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
5%
18.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Antofagasta and 0.87 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Antofagasta have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 14W 16D 18L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Universidad de Chile's form line: 16W 11D 21L from 48 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Antofagasta against 1.23 for Universidad de Chile. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Antofagasta have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
On the road, Universidad de Chile have gone 6W 3D 14L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antofagasta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antofagasta are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.15 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Blended
Universidad de Chile
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 14W 16D 18L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Antofagasta's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 1.57 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antofagasta have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Universidad de Chile — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Antofagasta
2
Draws
2
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 0, Universidad de Chile have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2022, when Antofagasta 1-1 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antofagasta see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 52%, Universidad de Chile 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Antofagasta) and 56% (Universidad de Chile).
On the defensive side: Antofagasta keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Antofagasta have failed to score in 26% of games; Universidad de Chile in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play Universidad de Chile?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Antofagasta's recent matches and 56% of Universidad de Chile's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Antofagasta's recent games and 56% of Universidad de Chile's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 17, as Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.40 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.87 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.83 / defence 0.96 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.93 / defence 1.16, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 48% | Draw 30% | Universidad de Chile 22%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 40%, Universidad de Chile 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antofagasta 1.21 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.