Antofagasta 1-2 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán plays host to Antofagasta versus Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.08 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 1.049 / defence 1.259 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.635 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 0.982 / away 1.081. Data: 5 Antofagasta games / 5 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 39% | Draw 34% | Universidad de Chile 27%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Universidad de Chile 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antofagasta as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antofagasta if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 39% | Draw 34% | Universidad de Chile 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Antofagasta 1.08 / Universidad de Chile 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 1.049 / def 1.259 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.635 / def 1.052 | league avg home 0.982 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Universidad de Chile xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile?
Antofagasta 1 - 2 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 39% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antofagasta's attack rating (1.05) and Universidad de Chile's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Universidad de Chile's attack (0.64x) against Antofagasta's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
39%
2.59
34%
2.92
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
1.95
0.86
Universidad de Chile xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Antofagasta and 0.86 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Pre-Season
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antofagasta have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Universidad de Chile — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Antofagasta
2
Draws
2
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 0, Universidad de Chile have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2022, when Antofagasta 1-1 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Universidad de Chile?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Universidad de Chile defy the odds to beat Antofagasta 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Antofagasta 1-2 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.08 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.86 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Universidad de Chile outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 1.05 / defence 1.26 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.64 / defence 1.05, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 39% | Draw 34% | Universidad de Chile 27%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Universidad de Chile win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.