Antofagasta 1-2 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antofagasta vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antofagasta and Union Espanola meet at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán in Primera División, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 21 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antofagasta's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antofagasta have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Espanola have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Antofagasta, 0 for Union Espanola and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Union Espanola — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antofagasta 67% and Union Espanola 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antofagasta 42% | Union Espanola 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.24 xG and Union Espanola 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.936 / defence 1.108 | Union Espanola attack 0.812 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.277. Union Espanola bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Antofagasta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Antofagasta games / 25 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 38% | Draw 29% | Union Espanola 33%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Union Espanola 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antofagasta are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antofagasta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Antofagasta 60% | Union Espanola 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 38% | Draw 29% | Union Espanola 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Antofagasta 1.24 / Union Espanola 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.936 / def 1.108 | Union Espanola attack 0.812 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Union Espanola xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Union Espanola kick off?
Antofagasta vs Union Espanola kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 21 October 2021 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Union Espanola?
Antofagasta 1 - 2 Union Espanola.
Where is Antofagasta vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Union Espanola part of?
Antofagasta vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 38% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Antofagasta and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Union Espanola?
Record (1 meetings): Antofagasta 0W | Draws 1 | Union Espanola 0W.
What form are Antofagasta and Union Espanola in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Union Espanola (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Antofagasta's attack at 0.94x the league average against Union Espanola's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.81x) against Antofagasta's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.49
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.39
1.15
Union Espanola xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
10%
10.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Antofagasta and 1.15 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antofagasta come into this having played 24 games, going 9W 8D 7L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (11W 3D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Antofagasta against 1.50 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Antofagasta's home form reads 7W 1D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (4W 1D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Espanola's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antofagasta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antofagasta are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.54 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Union Espanola in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 9W 8D 7L in their last 24 games (1.46 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 11W 3D 10L in their last 24 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or Union Espanola away?
Antofagasta's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 1.83 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antofagasta have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Antofagasta
1
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Union Espanola?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 1, Union Espanola have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2022, when Antofagasta 2-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Union Espanola?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 67%, Union Espanola 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Antofagasta) and 58% (Union Espanola). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Espanola in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play Union Espanola?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Antofagasta's games and 50% of Union Espanola's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antofagasta vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Antofagasta's matches and 58% of Union Espanola's.
Do Antofagasta and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Antofagasta have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Espanola defy the odds to beat Antofagasta 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Antofagasta 1-2 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.24 xG and Union Espanola 1.15 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union Espanola outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Union Espanola attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 38% | Draw 29% | Union Espanola 33%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Union Espanola win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 42%, Union Espanola 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Union Espanola's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antofagasta 1.46 PPG, Union Espanola 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Antofagasta (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.