Antofagasta 3-2 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antofagasta vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antofagasta host U. Catolica at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 29 July 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Antofagasta — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antofagasta have posted 3W 0D 2L at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Antofagasta are significantly better at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, U. Catolica stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, U. Catolica have posted 2W 0D 3L from 5 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour U. Catolica — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Antofagasta in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
U. Catolica in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antofagasta 73% versus U. Catolica 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antofagasta 46% | U. Catolica 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.07 xG and U. Catolica 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.916 / defence 1.108 | U. Catolica attack 0.808 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 0.951. Data: 11 Antofagasta games / 11 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 37% | Draw 37% | U. Catolica 26%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | U. Catolica 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Antofagasta 60% | U. Catolica 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Jul 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 37% | Draw 37% | U. Catolica 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG Antofagasta 1.07 / U. Catolica 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.916 / def 1.108 | U. Catolica attack 0.808 / def 1.175 | league avg home 0.998 / away 0.951 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
0.85
U. Catolica xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs U. Catolica kick off?
Antofagasta vs U. Catolica kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 29 July 2021 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs U. Catolica?
Antofagasta 3 - 2 U. Catolica.
Where is Antofagasta vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs U. Catolica part of?
Antofagasta vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 37% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Antofagasta and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and U. Catolica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antofagasta and U. Catolica in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. U. Catolica (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Antofagasta's attack rating (0.92) and U. Catolica's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Antofagasta's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
37%
2.67
37%
2.71
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
1.93
0.85
U. Catolica xG
2.67
37%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Antofagasta and 0.85 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antofagasta come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 4D 3L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, U. Catolica sit at 2.00 PPG from 11 outings (7W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
U. Catolica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Antofagasta's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, U. Catolica have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of U. Catolica's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antofagasta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antofagasta are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.45 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: U. Catolica in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Blended
U. Catolica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 7W 1D 3L in their last 11 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or U. Catolica away?
Antofagasta's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 1.80 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Antofagasta or U. Catolica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antofagasta have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, U. Catolica in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
U. Catolica go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2021, when U. Catolica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antofagasta's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Antofagasta
0
Draws
3
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and U. Catolica?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 1, U. Catolica have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2022, when Antofagasta 0-2 U. Catolica.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antofagasta see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
U. Catolica see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 60%, U. Catolica 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Antofagasta) and 20% (U. Catolica).
On the defensive side: Antofagasta keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; U. Catolica in 40%; U. Catolica in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play U. Catolica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Antofagasta's recent matches and 20% of U. Catolica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antofagasta vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Antofagasta's recent games and 20% of U. Catolica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Antofagasta edge out U. Catolica 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat U. Catolica 3-2 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.07 xG and U. Catolica 0.85 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Antofagasta beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. U. Catolica outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against U. Catolica attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 37% | Draw 37% | U. Catolica 26%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 46%, U. Catolica 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
U. Catolica's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.45. Form was overturned, with Antofagasta winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antofagasta (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.