Antofagasta 2-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Antofagasta take on Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton de Vina make the trip to Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán to face Antofagasta in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antofagasta have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Antofagasta's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Everton de Vina (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Everton de Vina have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Antofagasta. A 1.00 PPG lead over Everton de Vina (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antofagasta lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Antofagasta half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antofagasta 56% versus Everton de Vina 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Antofagasta 41% | Everton de Vina 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 0.79 xG and Everton de Vina 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.694 / defence 0.816 | Everton de Vina attack 1.005 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.002. Antofagasta's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Antofagasta games / 45 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 32% | Draw 35% | Everton de Vina 33%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Everton de Vina 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Antofagasta's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antofagasta 60% | Everton de Vina 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 32% | Draw 35% | Everton de Vina 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Antofagasta 0.79 / Everton de Vina 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.694 / def 0.816 | Everton de Vina attack 1.005 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Everton de Vina xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina?
Antofagasta 2 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina part of?
Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 32% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Antofagasta and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Everton de Vina?
Record (2 meetings): Antofagasta 0W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are Antofagasta and Everton de Vina in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antofagasta's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.00x) against Antofagasta's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.17
35%
2.83
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
1.62
0.82
Everton de Vina xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.24
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.9 | 16.3 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.6%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Antofagasta and 0.82 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Antofagasta have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 12W 11D 9L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Everton de Vina's form line: 10W 9D 13L from 32 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Antofagasta against 1.22 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Antofagasta have posted 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 5D 7L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antofagasta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antofagasta are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.91 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 12W 11D 9L in their last 32 games (1.47 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or Everton de Vina away?
Antofagasta's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 1.81 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Antofagasta or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antofagasta have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton de Vina won 3-0 on 30 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antofagasta have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Antofagasta
2
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Everton de Vina?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 0, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2022, when Everton de Vina 3-0 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 62%, Everton de Vina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Antofagasta) and 25% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Antofagasta keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Antofagasta's recent matches and 44% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antofagasta vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Antofagasta's recent games and 25% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antofagasta and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Antofagasta have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antofagasta and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta and Everton de Vina finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 0.79 xG and Everton de Vina 0.82 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Antofagasta beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.69 / defence 0.82 against Everton de Vina attack 1.00 / defence 0.81, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 32% | Draw 35% | Everton de Vina 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 41%, Everton de Vina 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antofagasta 1.47 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antofagasta (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.