Antofagasta 2-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Antofagasta take on Cobresal.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antofagasta and Cobresal meet at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán in Primera División, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.06 xG and Cobresal 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.957 / defence 1.270 | Cobresal attack 0.713 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 0.898 / away 1.092. Cobresal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Antofagasta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Antofagasta games / 4 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 33% | Draw 38% | Cobresal 29%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 3.03 | Draw 2.63 | Cobresal 3.45. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 33% | Draw 38% | Cobresal 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Antofagasta 1.06 / Cobresal 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.957 / def 1.270 | Cobresal attack 0.713 / def 1.235 | league avg home 0.898 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Cobresal xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Cobresal kick off?
Antofagasta vs Cobresal kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Cobresal?
Antofagasta 2 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Antofagasta vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Cobresal part of?
Antofagasta vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 33% chance of winning, Cobresal a 29% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Antofagasta and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Cobresal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antofagasta and Cobresal in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Antofagasta's attack at 0.96x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.71x) against Antofagasta's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 3/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
38%
2.60
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.05
0.99
Cobresal xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Antofagasta and 0.99 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Pre-Season
Cobresal
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Cobresal have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antofagasta have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Antofagasta
0
Draws
3
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Cobresal?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 1, Cobresal have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2022, when Cobresal 2-1 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Antofagasta edge out Cobresal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.06 xG and Cobresal 0.99 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Antofagasta beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against Cobresal attack 0.71 / defence 1.24, drawn from 3/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 33% | Draw 38% | Cobresal 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Antofagasta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.