Antofagasta 0-1 A. Italiano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Antofagasta take on A. Italiano.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
A. Italiano make the trip to Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán to face Antofagasta in Primera División, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Antofagasta (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antofagasta at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán this season: 4W 0D 2L from 6 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
A. Italiano's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for A. Italiano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
A. Italiano's away record: 1W 4D 1L from 6 road trips in Primera División this season (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Antofagasta, 1.40 for A. Italiano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Antofagasta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
A. Italiano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antofagasta 77% and A. Italiano 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Antofagasta 46% | A. Italiano 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.08 xG and A. Italiano 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 1.052 / defence 1.161 | A. Italiano attack 0.810 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.148. Data: 13 Antofagasta games / 13 A. Italiano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 32% | Draw 37% | A. Italiano 31%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | A. Italiano 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Antofagasta 67% | A. Italiano 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs A. Italiano | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 32% | Draw 37% | A. Italiano 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Antofagasta 1.08 / A. Italiano 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 1.052 / def 1.161 | A. Italiano attack 0.810 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
1.08
A. Italiano xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs A. Italiano kick off?
Antofagasta vs A. Italiano kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs A. Italiano?
Antofagasta 0 - 1 A. Italiano.
Where is Antofagasta vs A. Italiano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs A. Italiano part of?
Antofagasta vs A. Italiano is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs A. Italiano?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 32% chance of winning, A. Italiano a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs A. Italiano?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Antofagasta and A. Italiano will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs A. Italiano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and A. Italiano?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antofagasta and A. Italiano in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. A. Italiano (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antofagasta's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against A. Italiano's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — A. Italiano's attack (0.81x) against Antofagasta's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
37%
2.71
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.16
1.08
A. Italiano xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs A. Italiano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and A. Italiano expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Antofagasta and 1.08 for A. Italiano, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs A. Italiano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antofagasta's recent record stands at 5W 5D 3L from 13 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
A. Italiano, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 2L across 13 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for A. Italiano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Antofagasta against 1.62 for A. Italiano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antofagasta have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Antofagasta are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
A. Italiano's away record stands at 1W 4D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of A. Italiano's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antofagasta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antofagasta are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; A. Italiano are on 1.08 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Defensively: A. Italiano in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Blended
A. Italiano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and A. Italiano in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while A. Italiano have gone 5W 6D 2L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or A. Italiano away?
Antofagasta's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 2.00 PPG; A. Italiano away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Antofagasta or A. Italiano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antofagasta have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, A. Italiano in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antofagasta won 0-3 on 26 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antofagasta have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against A. Italiano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Antofagasta
1
Draws
2
A. Italiano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and A. Italiano?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 1, A. Italiano have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and A. Italiano last play each other?
They last met on 23 July 2022, when Antofagasta 2-3 A. Italiano.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and A. Italiano?
A. Italiano have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antofagasta see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
A. Italiano see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 67%, A. Italiano 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Antofagasta and 0% for A. Italiano.
On the defensive side: Antofagasta keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; A. Italiano in 33%; A. Italiano in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / A. Italiano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play A. Italiano?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Antofagasta's games and 50% of A. Italiano's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antofagasta vs A. Italiano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Antofagasta's recent games and 0% of A. Italiano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as A. Italiano defy the odds to beat Antofagasta 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
A. Italiano beat Antofagasta 0-1 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.08 xG and A. Italiano 1.08 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Antofagasta fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 1.05 / defence 1.16 against A. Italiano attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 32% | Draw 37% | A. Italiano 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual A. Italiano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 46%, A. Italiano 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
A. Italiano's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antofagasta 1.54 PPG, A. Italiano 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the A. Italiano win broke the near-deadlock. Antofagasta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.