A. Italiano 2-3 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates A. Italiano at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this A. Italiano vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
A. Italiano host Union La Calera at Estadio El Teniente in Primera División, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Guide
A. Italiano — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for A. Italiano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
A. Italiano's home record at Estadio El Teniente: 6W 2D 1L from 9 Primera División appearances (2.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Teniente.
Across all Primera División games this season, Union La Calera have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: A. Italiano 1.80 PPG, Union La Calera 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
A. Italiano in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — A. Italiano 42% versus Union La Calera 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (A. Italiano 26% | Union La Calera 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects A. Italiano 1.16 xG and Union La Calera 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: A. Italiano attack 0.908 / defence 1.083 | Union La Calera attack 0.853 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.146. Data: 19 A. Italiano games / 19 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: A. Italiano 36% | Draw 32% | Union La Calera 31%. Fair-value odds: A. Italiano 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Union La Calera 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is A. Italiano at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on A. Italiano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: A. Italiano 33% | Union La Calera 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: A. Italiano vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: A. Italiano 36% | Draw 32% | Union La Calera 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG A. Italiano 1.16 / Union La Calera 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: A. Italiano attack 0.908 / def 1.083 | Union La Calera attack 0.853 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: A. Italiano (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
A. Italiano xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Union La Calera xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does A. Italiano vs Union La Calera kick off?
A. Italiano vs Union La Calera kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in A. Italiano vs Union La Calera?
A. Italiano 2 - 3 Union La Calera.
Where is A. Italiano vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is A. Italiano vs Union La Calera part of?
A. Italiano vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win A. Italiano vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives A. Italiano a 36% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making A. Italiano the favourite.
Will both teams score in A. Italiano vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both A. Italiano and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will A. Italiano vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are A. Italiano and Union La Calera in?
A. Italiano (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from A. Italiano's attack rating (0.91) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus A. Italiano's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
A. Italiano Win
36%
2.74
32%
3.12
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
A. Italiano xG
Total xG
2.22
1.06
Union La Calera xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for A. Italiano vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are A. Italiano and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for A. Italiano and 1.06 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for A. Italiano vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
A. Italiano come into this having played 19 games, going 9W 7D 3L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for A. Italiano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (9W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: A. Italiano on 1.79 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
A. Italiano's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — A. Italiano are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, A. Italiano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
A. Italiano are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.05 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: A. Italiano have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Union La Calera in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
A. Italiano
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are A. Italiano and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
A. Italiano have gone 9W 7D 3L in their last 19 games (1.79 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — A. Italiano at home or Union La Calera away?
A. Italiano's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — A. Italiano at home: 2.22 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.33 PPG.
Have A. Italiano or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
A. Italiano have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between A. Italiano and Union La Calera runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when Union La Calera won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
A. Italiano's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
A. Italiano
2
Draws
6
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, A. Italiano have won 2, Union La Calera have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did A. Italiano and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Union La Calera 3-0 A. Italiano.
Who has won more matches between A. Italiano and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
A. Italiano see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — A. Italiano 33%, Union La Calera 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (A. Italiano) and 56% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: A. Italiano keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Union La Calera in 33%; Union La Calera in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = A. Italiano home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when A. Italiano play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of A. Italiano's recent matches and 44% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is A. Italiano vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of A. Italiano's recent games and 56% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do A. Italiano and Union La Calera tend to score early?
A. Italiano have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat A. Italiano 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat A. Italiano 2-3 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.16 xG and Union La Calera 1.06 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. A. Italiano beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union La Calera outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Union La Calera attack 0.85 / defence 1.18, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 36% | Draw 32% | Union La Calera 31%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 26%, Union La Calera 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
A. Italiano's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Union La Calera's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.79 PPG, Union La Calera 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. A. Italiano (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.