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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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A. Italiano cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union Espanola.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat Union Espanola 2-0 at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.71 xG and Union Espanola 1.09 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union Espanola landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Union Espanola attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 50% | Draw 28% | Union Espanola 22%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 52%, Union Espanola 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.15 PPG, Union Espanola 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the A. Italiano win broke the near-deadlock. A. Italiano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights