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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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A. Italiano and U. Catolica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano and U. Catolica finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.61 xG and U. Catolica 1.01 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.22 / defence 1.08 against U. Catolica attack 0.90 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 51% | Draw 25% | U. Catolica 24%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 51%, U. Catolica 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

U. Catolica's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.47 PPG, U. Catolica 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights