A. Italiano 1-2 Nublense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nublense at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this A. Italiano vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Teniente plays host to A. Italiano versus Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 7 February 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
A. Italiano have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, A. Italiano have posted 4W 2D 4L at Estadio El Teniente — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Teniente. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nublense's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for A. Italiano, 1.50 for Nublense — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: A. Italiano 0W, Nublense 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Nublense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
A. Italiano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Nublense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — A. Italiano 47% versus Nublense 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (A. Italiano 34% | Nublense 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects A. Italiano 1.26 xG and Nublense 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: A. Italiano attack 0.964 / defence 0.973 | Nublense attack 1.108 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.259. Data: 32 A. Italiano games / 32 Nublense games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: A. Italiano 34% | Draw 28% | Nublense 38%. Fair-value odds: A. Italiano 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Nublense 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: A. Italiano 30% | Nublense 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: A. Italiano vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Monday 7 Feb 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: A. Italiano 34% | Draw 28% | Nublense 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG A. Italiano 1.26 / Nublense 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: A. Italiano attack 0.964 / def 0.973 | Nublense attack 1.108 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Nublense (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
A. Italiano xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Nublense xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does A. Italiano vs Nublense kick off?
A. Italiano vs Nublense kicked off at 21:00 on Monday 7 February 2022 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in A. Italiano vs Nublense?
A. Italiano 1 - 2 Nublense.
Where is A. Italiano vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is A. Italiano vs Nublense part of?
A. Italiano vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win A. Italiano vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives A. Italiano a 34% chance of winning, Nublense a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in A. Italiano vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both A. Italiano and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will A. Italiano vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Nublense?
Record (1 meetings): A. Italiano 0W | Draws 0 | Nublense 1W.
What form are A. Italiano and Nublense in?
A. Italiano (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Nublense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates A. Italiano's attack at 0.96x the league average against Nublense's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (1.11x) against A. Italiano's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
34%
2.96
28%
3.60
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
A. Italiano xG
Total xG
2.62
1.36
Nublense xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
9%
11.49
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for A. Italiano vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are A. Italiano and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for A. Italiano and 1.36 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for A. Italiano vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
A. Italiano come into this having played 32 games, going 14W 12D 6L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Nublense sit at 1.38 PPG from 32 outings (11W 11D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for A. Italiano against 1.38 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
A. Italiano's home form reads 8W 4D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Nublense have taken 1.12 points per game from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, A. Italiano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
A. Italiano are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.53 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: A. Italiano have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
A. Italiano
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are A. Italiano and Nublense in coming into this match?
A. Italiano have gone 14W 12D 6L in their last 32 games (1.69 PPG), while Nublense have gone 11W 11D 10L in their last 32 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — A. Italiano at home or Nublense away?
A. Italiano's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — A. Italiano at home: 1.75 PPG; Nublense away: 1.12 PPG.
Have A. Italiano or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
A. Italiano have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Nublense in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nublense won 0-3 on 19 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, A. Italiano have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
A. Italiano
0
Draws
4
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, A. Italiano have won 6, Nublense have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did A. Italiano and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Nublense 1-0 A. Italiano.
Who has won more matches between A. Italiano and Nublense?
A. Italiano have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
A. Italiano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — A. Italiano 38%, Nublense 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (A. Italiano) and 50% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: A. Italiano keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = A. Italiano home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when A. Italiano play Nublense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of A. Italiano's recent matches and 62% of Nublense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is A. Italiano vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of A. Italiano's recent games and 50% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do A. Italiano and Nublense tend to score early?
A. Italiano have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Nublense in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nublense edge out A. Italiano 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat A. Italiano 1-2 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.26 xG and Nublense 1.36 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Nublense attack 1.11 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/32 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 34% | Draw 28% | Nublense 38%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 34%, Nublense 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
A. Italiano's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Nublense's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.69 PPG, Nublense 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. A. Italiano (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.