🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as A. Italiano edge out Huachipato 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat Huachipato 4-3 at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 2.06 xG and Huachipato 0.78 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. A. Italiano beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Huachipato outscored their 0.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Huachipato attack 0.88 / defence 1.24, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 67% | Draw 20% | Huachipato 13%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 52%, Huachipato 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.15 PPG, Huachipato 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the A. Italiano win broke the near-deadlock. A. Italiano (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Huachipato (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights