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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as A. Italiano edge out Everton de Vina 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat Everton de Vina 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.79 xG and Everton de Vina 0.74 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.17 / defence 0.93 against Everton de Vina attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 62% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 15%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 53%, Everton de Vina 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.43 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the A. Italiano win broke the near-deadlock. A. Italiano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights