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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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A. Italiano and Deportes Limache share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida, Regular Season - 11, as A. Italiano and Deportes Limache drew 2-2 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.83 xG and Deportes Limache 1.41 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.17 / defence 1.08 against Deportes Limache attack 1.17 / defence 1.01, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 48% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 30%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 57%, Deportes Limache 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, A. Italiano arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. A. Italiano (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights