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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as A. Italiano edge out D. La Serena 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat D. La Serena 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 2.38 xG and D. La Serena 0.70 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.11 / defence 0.91 against D. La Serena attack 0.87 / defence 1.36, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 75% | Draw 16% | D. La Serena 9%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights