A. Italiano 1-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates A. Italiano at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
A. Italiano host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio El Teniente in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, A. Italiano stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estadio El Teniente, A. Italiano have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Teniente. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects A. Italiano 1.49 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: A. Italiano attack 0.914 / defence 1.169 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.778 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.107. Coquimbo Unido bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing A. Italiano's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 A. Italiano games / 9 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: A. Italiano 48% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 26%. Fair-value odds: A. Italiano 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Coquimbo Unido 3.85. A. Italiano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, A. Italiano are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on A. Italiano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: A. Italiano 48% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG A. Italiano 1.49 / Coquimbo Unido 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: A. Italiano attack 0.914 / def 1.169 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.778 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: A. Italiano (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
A. Italiano xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Coquimbo Unido xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido?
A. Italiano 1 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives A. Italiano a 48% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making A. Italiano the favourite.
Will both teams score in A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido in?
A. Italiano (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. A. Italiano home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from A. Italiano's attack rating (0.91) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus A. Italiano's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
A. Italiano Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.83
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
A. Italiano xG
Total xG
2.50
1.01
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
6%
17.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for A. Italiano and 1.01 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
A. Italiano
Pre-Season
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2026, when Coquimbo Unido won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
A. Italiano's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
A. Italiano
3
Draws
5
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, A. Italiano have won 1, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 3-0 A. Italiano.
Who has won more matches between A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = A. Italiano home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 10, as A. Italiano and Coquimbo Unido drew 1-1 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.49 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.01 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 0.91 / defence 1.17 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.78 / defence 1.23, drawn from 41/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 48% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 26%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.