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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Colo Colo defy the odds to beat A. Italiano 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat A. Italiano 0-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.52 xG and Colo Colo 0.82 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. A. Italiano fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.12 / defence 0.81 against Colo Colo attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 54% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 20%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Colo Colo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 53%, Colo Colo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. A. Italiano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Colo Colo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights