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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as A. Italiano edge out Colo Colo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

A. Italiano beat Colo Colo 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.68 xG and Colo Colo 1.24 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.20 / defence 1.11 against Colo Colo attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 48% | Draw 24% | Colo Colo 28%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 52%, Colo Colo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with A. Italiano winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. A. Italiano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Colo Colo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights