A. Italiano 0-0 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates A. Italiano at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this A. Italiano vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cobresal make the trip to Estadio El Teniente to face A. Italiano in Primera División, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Monday 10 May 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects A. Italiano 1.29 xG and Cobresal 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: A. Italiano attack 1.053 / defence 0.886 | Cobresal attack 0.709 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.150. Cobresal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing A. Italiano's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 A. Italiano games / 6 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: A. Italiano 49% | Draw 32% | Cobresal 20%. Fair-value odds: A. Italiano 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Cobresal 5.00. A. Italiano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates A. Italiano as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on A. Italiano if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: A. Italiano vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Monday 10 May 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: A. Italiano 49% | Draw 32% | Cobresal 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG A. Italiano 1.29 / Cobresal 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: A. Italiano attack 1.053 / def 0.886 | Cobresal attack 0.709 / def 1.273 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: A. Italiano (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
A. Italiano xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Cobresal xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does A. Italiano vs Cobresal kick off?
A. Italiano vs Cobresal kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 10 May 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in A. Italiano vs Cobresal?
A. Italiano 0 - 0 Cobresal.
Where is A. Italiano vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is A. Italiano vs Cobresal part of?
A. Italiano vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win A. Italiano vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives A. Italiano a 49% chance of winning, Cobresal a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making A. Italiano the favourite.
Will both teams score in A. Italiano vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both A. Italiano and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will A. Italiano vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Cobresal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are A. Italiano and Cobresal in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates A. Italiano's attack at 1.05x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.71x) against A. Italiano's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
A. Italiano Win
49%
2.05
32%
3.16
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
A. Italiano xG
Total xG
2.01
0.72
Cobresal xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
5%
18.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for A. Italiano vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are A. Italiano and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for A. Italiano and 0.72 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for A. Italiano vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
A. Italiano
Pre-Season
Cobresal
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, A. Italiano have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
A. Italiano
1
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, A. Italiano have won 7, Cobresal have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did A. Italiano and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when A. Italiano 2-1 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between A. Italiano and Cobresal?
A. Italiano have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = A. Italiano home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at A. Italiano's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
A. Italiano and Cobresal finished level at 0-0 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.29 xG and Cobresal 0.72 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. A. Italiano fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Cobresal attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 49% | Draw 32% | Cobresal 20%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.