A. Italiano 0-3 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates A. Italiano at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this A. Italiano vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antofagasta make the trip to Estadio El Teniente to face A. Italiano in Primera División, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
A. Italiano (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estadio El Teniente, A. Italiano have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Teniente. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Antofagasta's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Antofagasta have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for A. Italiano, 1.80 for Antofagasta — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — A. Italiano have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Antofagasta in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: A. Italiano 1W, Antofagasta 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
A. Italiano — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — A. Italiano 47% versus Antofagasta 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (A. Italiano 34% | Antofagasta 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects A. Italiano 1.31 xG and Antofagasta 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: A. Italiano attack 0.941 / defence 1.061 | Antofagasta attack 0.858 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.196. Data: 35 A. Italiano games / 35 Antofagasta games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: A. Italiano 38% | Draw 34% | Antofagasta 28%. Fair-value odds: A. Italiano 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Antofagasta 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, A. Italiano are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on A. Italiano if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: A. Italiano 30% | Antofagasta 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: A. Italiano vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: A. Italiano 38% | Draw 34% | Antofagasta 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG A. Italiano 1.31 / Antofagasta 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: A. Italiano attack 0.941 / def 1.061 | Antofagasta attack 0.858 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: A. Italiano (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
A. Italiano xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Antofagasta xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does A. Italiano vs Antofagasta kick off?
A. Italiano vs Antofagasta kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in A. Italiano vs Antofagasta?
A. Italiano 0 - 3 Antofagasta.
Where is A. Italiano vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is A. Italiano vs Antofagasta part of?
A. Italiano vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win A. Italiano vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives A. Italiano a 38% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making A. Italiano the favourite.
Will both teams score in A. Italiano vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both A. Italiano and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will A. Italiano vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Antofagasta?
Record (2 meetings): A. Italiano 1W | Draws 1 | Antofagasta 0W.
What form are A. Italiano and Antofagasta in?
A. Italiano (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Antofagasta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates A. Italiano's attack at 0.94x the league average against Antofagasta's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (0.86x) against A. Italiano's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
A. Italiano Win
38%
2.61
34%
2.92
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
A. Italiano xG
Total xG
2.40
1.09
Antofagasta xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for A. Italiano vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are A. Italiano and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for A. Italiano and 1.09 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for A. Italiano vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
A. Italiano's recent record stands at 14W 12D 6L from 32 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Antofagasta, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 9L across 32 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for A. Italiano against 1.47 for Antofagasta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, A. Italiano have managed 8W 4D 4L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antofagasta's away record stands at 3W 9D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, A. Italiano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
A. Italiano are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.06 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: A. Italiano have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
A. Italiano
Current Season
Antofagasta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are A. Italiano and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
A. Italiano have gone 14W 12D 6L in their last 32 games (1.69 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 12W 11D 9L in their last 32 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — A. Italiano at home or Antofagasta away?
A. Italiano's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — A. Italiano at home: 1.75 PPG; Antofagasta away: 1.12 PPG.
Have A. Italiano or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
A. Italiano have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antofagasta won 0-3 on 26 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, A. Italiano have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
A. Italiano
1
Draws
1
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, A. Italiano have won 2, Antofagasta have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did A. Italiano and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 23 July 2022, when Antofagasta 2-3 A. Italiano.
Who has won more matches between A. Italiano and Antofagasta?
A. Italiano have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
A. Italiano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — A. Italiano 38%, Antofagasta 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for A. Italiano and 25% for Antofagasta.
On the defensive side: A. Italiano keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Antofagasta in 31%; Antofagasta in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = A. Italiano home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when A. Italiano play Antofagasta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of A. Italiano's recent matches and 50% of Antofagasta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is A. Italiano vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of A. Italiano's recent games and 25% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do A. Italiano and Antofagasta tend to score early?
A. Italiano have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antofagasta run riot with a 0-3 hammering of A. Italiano.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat A. Italiano 0-3 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.31 xG and Antofagasta 1.09 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. A. Italiano fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Antofagasta outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Antofagasta attack 0.86 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 38% | Draw 34% | Antofagasta 28%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Antofagasta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 34%, Antofagasta 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
A. Italiano's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Antofagasta's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.69 PPG, Antofagasta 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antofagasta win broke the near-deadlock. A. Italiano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antofagasta (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.