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Stalemate at Universidad de Concepcion's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Municipal de Collao, Regular Season - 14, as Universidad de Concepcion and Union La Calera drew 0-0 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Concepcion 1.34 xG and Union La Calera 1.05 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Universidad de Concepcion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Union La Calera landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.75 / defence 1.07 against Union La Calera attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Concepcion 43% | Draw 27% | Union La Calera 29%, with Universidad de Concepcion to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights