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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Concepcion edge out Concepción 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Concepcion beat Concepción 2-1 at Municipal de Collao, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Concepcion 1.60 xG and Concepción 0.76 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.87 / defence 0.99 against Concepción attack 0.78 / defence 1.22, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Concepcion 57% | Draw 25% | Concepción 18%, with Universidad de Concepcion to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights