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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Universidad de Concepcion 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Universidad de Concepcion 1-2 at Municipal de Collao, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Concepcion 0.81 xG and Colo Colo 0.99 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Colo Colo outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.73 / defence 0.98 against Colo Colo attack 0.91 / defence 0.74, drawn from 10/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Concepcion 29% | Draw 33% | Colo Colo 38%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights