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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Concepcion edge out Cobresal 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Concepcion beat Cobresal 1-0 at Municipal de Collao, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Concepcion 1.60 xG and Cobresal 1.34 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cobresal landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.73 / defence 1.12 against Cobresal attack 1.11 / defence 1.37, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Concepcion 43% | Draw 24% | Cobresal 32%, with Universidad de Concepcion to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights