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Dominant Universidad de Chile run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Union Espanola.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Union Espanola 4-1 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 2.12 xG and Union Espanola 0.74 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Universidad de Chile beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.38 / defence 0.86 against Union Espanola attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 69% | Draw 19% | Union Espanola 12%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 54%, Union Espanola 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Union Espanola's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. Union Espanola (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights