🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out U. Catolica 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat U. Catolica 1-0 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.62 xG and U. Catolica 0.90 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. U. Catolica landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.22 / defence 0.89 against U. Catolica attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 54% | Draw 25% | U. Catolica 21%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 57%, U. Catolica 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.75 PPG, U. Catolica 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights