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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Universidad de Chile and Deportes Limache share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 4, as Universidad de Chile and Deportes Limache drew 2-2 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.53 xG and Deportes Limache 0.99 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Limache outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Deportes Limache attack 1.09 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 50% | Draw 26% | Deportes Limache 24%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 50%, Deportes Limache 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights