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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Deportes Limache 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Deportes Limache 4-3 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 2.43 xG and Deportes Limache 0.91 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Universidad de Chile beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Deportes Limache outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.29 / defence 0.90 against Deportes Limache attack 0.89 / defence 1.28, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 71% | Draw 17% | Deportes Limache 12%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 50%, Deportes Limache 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Limache's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights