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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Colo Colo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Colo Colo 2-1 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 2.41 xG and Colo Colo 0.80 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.64 / defence 0.80 against Colo Colo attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 73% | Draw 16% | Colo Colo 10%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 52%, Colo Colo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Colo Colo's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 2.11 PPG, Colo Colo 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. Colo Colo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights