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Shock result as Cobresal defy the odds to beat Universidad de Chile 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat Universidad de Chile 0-1 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 2.19 xG and Cobresal 0.90 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.52 / defence 0.83 against Cobresal attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 67% | Draw 19% | Cobresal 14%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Cobresal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 56%, Cobresal 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Cobresal's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Cobresal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Cobresal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights