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Dominant Universidad de Chile run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Union La Calera.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Union La Calera 0-4 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.32 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.05 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Union La Calera fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Universidad de Chile outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 43% | Draw 28% | Universidad de Chile 30%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Universidad de Chile win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 37%, Universidad de Chile 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights