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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Union La Calera run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Union Espanola.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union La Calera beat Union Espanola 4-0 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.47 xG and Union Espanola 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Espanola landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Union Espanola attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 42% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 31%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 48%, Union Espanola 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.25 PPG, Union Espanola 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights