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Shock result as Palestino defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palestino beat Union La Calera 1-2 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.70 xG and Palestino 1.06 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palestino outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Palestino attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 52% | Draw 24% | Palestino 24%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Palestino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 40%, Palestino 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palestino arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights