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Shock result as Nublense defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nublense beat Union La Calera 0-1 at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.59 xG and Nublense 0.98 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union La Calera fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Nublense attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 52% | Draw 25% | Nublense 23%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Nublense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 40%, Nublense 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.05 PPG, Nublense 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Nublense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights