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Shock result as Deportes Limache defy the odds to beat Union La Calera 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Deportes Limache beat Union La Calera 0-1 at Nicholas chahuan Municipal, Regular Season - 29, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.83 xG and Deportes Limache 1.23 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union La Calera fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Deportes Limache attack 1.04 / defence 1.35, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 52% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 26%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Deportes Limache win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 36%, Deportes Limache 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Deportes Limache's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.04 PPG, Deportes Limache 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Limache win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights