🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Union La Calera and D. La Serena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union La Calera and D. La Serena finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.35 xG and D. La Serena 1.06 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.78 / defence 1.16 against D. La Serena attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 43% | Draw 27% | D. La Serena 29%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 26%, D. La Serena 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.

D. La Serena's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.16 PPG, D. La Serena 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. D. La Serena (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights