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Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Cobresal 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union La Calera beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.91 xG and Cobresal 0.94 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against Cobresal attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 59% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 16%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 48%, Cobresal 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.25 PPG, Cobresal 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights